Newton’s mayoral race seems a local replay of Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama: Rep. Ruth Balser, with 11 years on Beacon Hill and seven as a Newton alderman, vs. Setti Warren, a smooth, personable African-American, ex-aide to Sen. John Kerry, Naval Reserve officer last year in Iraq and a Clinton appointee as regional head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency - “back before Bush ruined it,” he tells voters.

But this time I predict the woman will win, given Balser’s links to leadership on Beacon Hill, record of achievement on local projects and her direct, honest approach, especially in debates. Plus the head start she got, with 5,723 votes to Warren’s 4,851 in a preliminary election that weeded out three rivals.